Will an asteroid hit Earth?
Not as far as anyone can tell. NASA and ESA are tracking 2,414 asteroids that have some known chance of hitting Earth. Every one of them is rated 0 on the Torino scale, the 0–10 scale astronomers use to tell the public how worried to be. Zero means no unusual danger.
Why are they listed at all? When an asteroid is first spotted, its orbit is only roughly known, and a few of its possible paths may cross Earth. As astronomers keep observing, those paths are ruled out one by one, and the asteroid is removed from the list. For 2,160 of the listed asteroids the odds are already below 1 in 10,000.
The ones experts watch most closely
Odds are each agency's total chance of an impact across all possible dates; the earliest year is the first of those dates. A dash means that agency doesn't list the asteroid. Ranked by the Palermo scale, which weighs the odds against the asteroid's size and how soon the date is. Select a row to see its full history.
NASA and ESA: two independent answers
The two agencies run separate software on the same telescope observations. Of the 1,860 asteroids on both lists, 1,340 have odds within 3× of each other, and for 236 the odds are more than 10× apart. Another 554 appear on only one list, almost always at the very bottom of the risk range.
What changed in the latest update
On 2026-10-25, 0 listings were added, 0 were removed, and 2 had their odds revised (NASA and ESA counted separately).
The biggest changes are shown first. See all changes → · Get updates by RSS
Explore
- Look up an asteroid: its full history on both lists.
- All asteroids: everything ever listed, searchable.
- NASA vs ESA: where the two agencies' odds differ.
- Daily changes: every addition, removal and revision.
- Removals: asteroids cleared as new observations arrived.
- Case studies: 2024 YR4 and Apophis, told through the archive.
- How it works: sources, methods and a glossary of terms.
Two Skies is an independent archive, not an official NASA or ESA product. For authoritative values check CNEOS Sentry and the ESA NEOCC risk list.